Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Fantasy League 2022 -- week 7 recap


In light of recent events, here are reasonable criticisms you can still level at Bryce Harper:

** Yes, he hit a game-winning two-run HR in the eighth inning of the clincing game of the NLCS. But why wasn’t it a grand slam? Why just settle for two runs?

** Sure, Harper has proven he can hit in the postseason. But his average is only .410. He still misses more than half the time.

** He seems to curse a lot when the Phillies are doing well. I don’t know that he’s a family-friendly superstar.

** Since Harper arrived in Philadelphia, he hasn’t scored a single touchdown. Not one.

** He only has two NL Most Valuable Player Awards and one postseason MVP. Mike Schmidt had three NL MVP awards and one postseason MVP. So, you know, Harper could do more.

** Harper hasn’t won a World Series … yet.


QB: Joe Burrow, 45.24 pts — started by Jonathan
WR: Mecole Hardman, 25.01 pts — started by Bob
RB: Josh Jacobs, 34.54 pts — started by me
TE: Juwan Johnson, 16.63 pts — on the wire
K: Jason Myers, 16.00 pts — on the wire
DEF: Dallas, 25.00 pts — on Paul’s bench
D: De'Vondre Campbell, 12.00 pts — started by me

Second week in a row for Burrow as the top fantasy scorer. Over the last two games, he has tossed six touchdowns, run for another, and totaled 83.74 fantasy pts. For comparison, QBs Justin Fields, Ryan Tannehill, and Matt Stafford don’t have that many fantasy points for the year so far.

Similarly, Jacobs has come on strong since the start of October. In his first three games of the season he has 192 rushing yds, zero TDs and 26.64 fantasy pts. In the three games since? He has 441 rushing yds, 6 rushing TDs and an absurd 92.07 fantasy pts. That total is better than all but seven RBs for the year thus far. Maybe the Raiders should use him in every game, and not just half of them.

“Guys who were supposed to be something” edition

3rd place: Isaiah Spiller, -0.50 pts — on the wire
2nd place: San Francisco, -1.00 pts — on the wire
1st place: Skyy Moore, -2.00 pts — on the wire

The Niners are the third-best defense on the season, but ran into the blender that is the Kansas City Chiefs offense this week, dropping them down into the worst performers category. Spiller was a speculative “could he be a key backup?” guy at the start of the season who has materialized into little.

But Moore is the real headliner here. The Chiefs rookie wideout was projected to be a key cog in the high-powered offense this season. Instead, he has proven to be of no real use. His only touch on Sunday was a punt-return fumble that earned him the bottom spot in the fantasy rankings. He has totaled 8.19 fantasy pts on the year so far, good enough for the 130th best wideout on the season. But he has made enough money to afford that extra y in his name.


** Coming out of the locker room at the start of the third quarter during the Thursday night game, Amazon Prime sideline reporter (that’s a really weird thing to type) Kaylee Hartung ran up to Saints Coach Dennis Allen and had this exchange:

Hartung: QB Andy Dalton threw three interceptions in the first half. What was your message to him at halftime?

Saints coach Dennis Allen: Nothing. I told him to keep doing what he is doing. The first one was an unfortunate tip, the second was the same bad luck, but that third one was a real killer.

So, maybe say something to him about it then? Not sure the “go coach yourself” approach is the best way to go in this instance.

Unsurprisingly, the Saints did not win the game.

** After Sunday’s surprising loss by the Bucs to the Panthers, reporters asked Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady for his thoughts on the game. His response: "I think anytime you lose, it's not very fun for any of us."

I disagree, Tom. You losing is loads of fun for many of us.

** With the Yankees trailing the Astros 0-3 in the AL Championship Series, NY Manager Aaron Boone looked to rally his team to a comeback by showing them clips from the Boston Red Sox’s 0-3 comeback in the 2004 ALCS.

You know, the 2004 series. The one where the Yankees had the greatest choke job in baseball history. He chose that memory to inspire them.

Unsurprisingly, the Yankees were swept out of the playoffs a short while later.


Since it is the Eagles bye week, I had some extra time to dive into analysis of NFL data. Specifically, I was overdue for dispelling G’s commonly repeated myth that “the team that scores a safety usually loses.” As this is the most exciting play in football, and the only one that directly awards points for to a team for their opponent’s offensive incompetence, it’s a subject well worth the time and effort.

So, I am providing (free of charge!) a link that details all 182 safeties in the NFL since the start of the 2012 season. But, in case you don’t want to sort through it all yourself, here is the relevant summary:

** Teams that score a safety win two-thirds of the time (66.5%).
** When you take intentional safeties out of the picture, teams that score safeties win nearly 70% of the time.
** However, if your team scored a safety on a punt play or running play, it’s probably just dumb luck. Teams giving up a punting safety win only half the time (52%) and teams that have a botched run that results in a safety win only 59% of the time.
** Conversely, if your team scores a safety on a QB sack, it’s an indication your team is headed to victory. Teams with safety sacks win 78% of the time.
** Penalty sacks are also an indication of victory. Teams that commit intentional grounding in the end zone lose 82% of the time, teams with holding penalties in the end zone lose 78% of the time.

Other fun safety facts, since you asked:

** Every team has scored and surrendered at least one safety since the start of 2012.
** Every team has played in at least five games involving a safety since the start of 2012.
** The Colts and the Seahawks have played in the most games involving a safety, with 18 each.
** The Cowboys and Raiders have played in the least games involving a safety, with five each.
** The Lions have scored the second-most safeties of any team (11) but surrendered the least (one). Despite that, they have only a 0.45 win percentage in those games.
** The Patriots have the best win percentage of any team in games involving a safety, with a 0.91 win percentage.
** The Eagles are 4-1 in games where they score a safety and 2-2 in games where they surrender one.
** The Cowboys are the only team since 2012 not to win a single game where they scored a safety (0-1 in those games).

I should have my doctoral dissertation on NFL safeties completed by sometime early next year.

The Cowboys drafted Oklahoma State LB Devin Harper in the sixth round of the draft last spring, but he has been injured for the entire season thus far. That has given him time to watch a lot of other sports, however. And despite all the evil surrounding him at the Dallas facilities during his rehab, Harper’s name still reveals the truth about what he is seeing around him:

Dallas Cowboys new rookie linebacker Devin Harper
** A bold win — Phillies break SD, rock everyone. Now, a race.


When even the Cowboys are recognizing how great the Phillies are, you know the team has something special going on.

** Dad broke his losing streak by stealing one in the weekly picks, so he’s down five on the year to date. Despite that, and despite all the screwiness this week, I’m still picking winners at 63.5 percent of the time, currently better than every single one of the ESPN “expert” picks

** Next Sunday the Steelers take on the Eagles and if you though the Pennsylvania election ads have been bad up until now, I have some very unsettling news to tell you about the commercial breaks during that game…

** The latest report from NASA is that all of Kyle Schwarber’s home runs should hit the ground before the start of the World Series on Friday. The agency did not specify if that was the Earth’s ground or that of the moon.

** Mom D pointed out the upcoming Philly sports schedule, and it is both perfectly balanced and insane:
— Oct 28, Phillies at Houston Astros
— Oct. 29, Phillies at Houston Astros
— Oct. 30, Pittsburgh Steelers at Eagles
— Oct. 31, Houston Astros at Phillies
— Nov. 1, Houston Astros at Phillies
— Nov. 2, Houston Astros at Phillies (if needed)
— Nov. 3, Eagles at Houston Texans
— Nov. 4, Phillies at Houston Astros (if needed)
— Nov. 5, Phillies at Houston Astros (if needed)

That’s a lot of Texas and Pennsylvania in there.

Week 7 standings

Garrity Family Throwdown

1 — Del-marvelous Diva (Eileen), 6-1/910.38 pts
2 — Always Runny in Philly (Capt Awesome), 4-3/928.90 pts
3 — Chief Little Owl - JJG (Uncle Jim), 4-3/923.18 pts
4 — Jimmy's Chicken Shaq (Jim), 4-3/872.90 pts
5 — Stacked Dead Achterts (Carl), 4-3/863.68 pts
6 — Mary Alice's Primo Team (Mom), 4-3/832.88 pts
7 — Mailata Man or Beast? (Dad), 2-5/839.06 pts
8 — America's Losers (Dak Prescott), 0-7/489.90 pts

We’ve finally done it — we’re perfectly replicated the NFL’s parity with our family league. Everyone is stuck in the middle, perfectly mediocre. Eileen remains in first (even though she has only scored the third-most points and nearly lost to the loser team this week). And we have five teams tied for second.

We’ve made one full trip through the head-to-head matchups, so we’re starting with our rematches now, which means another chance for me to beat Dad this week. The current Yahoo projections have the final rankings the same and then … every other real team at either 8-7 or 7-8. So they have no idea what’s going on either.

Awesome Cup Standings

1 — Ouch! It Hurts (Mom D), 910.38 pts
2 — Champ For Life (Jo), 887.92 pts
3 — JJaw dropping skillz (Capt Awesome), 879.43 pts
4 — More Honey Bunches of Goats (Jonathan), 826.83 pts
5 — Mailata's Size 18 Shoes (Dad), 791.64 pts
6 — Crumb Bums (Ant), 757.23 pts
7 — Patriots Secret Cam (Joel), 751.44 pts
8 — Blue Collar Killers (Jeff), 708.72 pts
9 — No One Likes Us We Don't Care (Bob), 678.87 pts
10 — Murder Hornets (Mike), 670.78 pts
11 — Let's Go Iggles! (Paul), 661.14 pts
12 — Room Temperature Icers (Sam), 658.34 pts

And just like that, we have a new leader! Mom D has been threatening to unseat Jo for a few weeks now, but used a week-high 153.29 pts to overtake the reigning Awesome Cup champion. I was just a few points off, and Jonathan and Dad continue their assault on the upper tier.

At the other end of the standings, Paul scored 55.07 pts last week and left more than 65 pts on his bench, so things are getting back to normal.

Week 8 features byes for the Chiefs and Chargers (two of the most fantasy-star laden teams), a Thursday night game between the Ravens and Bucs (more big-name fantasy guys) and another 9:30 am London game between the Jaguars and Broncos (gawd help you if you have players in that one). So check your rosters early and often, it’s gonna be a bumpy roster setup this round.

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