Fantasy football 2023 -- week 5 recap

It was a rough weekend for the NFC East, with all four teams struggling mightily on the gridiron. But who had the worst weekend in football’s most vaunted division? Consider the disasters:

** The Maryland Commanders — After an encouraging 2-0 start to the season, the commies have lost three in a row, including falling 40-20 to the previously winless Bears on Thursday night. The Bears hadn’t won a game in almost a year, but after the second quarter never led by less than 10 points on the road in a week with short rest. The commies have allowed 30-plus points in four of their five contests, and are second worst in the NFL in points allowed.

** The New Jersey Giants — As bad as the commies are, the G-men are a game behind them in the standings. They’re 1-4 after a 31-16 loss to the Dolphins, and their schedule doesn’t get much better. They play at Buffalo next week, then have three division games in the next five. QB Daniel Jones, who signed a $160 million extension in March, has thrown as many TDs to opponents as to his own team (two) and left Sunday’s game with a neck injury.

** The Arlington Cowboys — The most evil team in all of sports sits two games out of first place after just five games following a 42-10 drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. QB Dak Prescott is 6-5 in his last 11 games (including the playoffs) and has thrown 12 interceptions over that stretch. The team is now 0-2 against the NFC West on the season, with two more contests still to go.

** The Philadelphia Eagles — The birds, the only NFC East team to actually play in the same city as their official NFL name, are in complete free fall. They’re averaging only 28.2 pts per game through the first five (compared to their unstoppable start last year, when they averaged 27 pts a game for their first five). They’re a mere second in total offense in the NFL and have now trailed for roughly 24 minutes of gameplay this season (7.5% of their time on the field). It’s astonishing that team leadership continues to rest on their undefeated record as the rationale for not overhauling the entire squad.

QB: Justin Fields, 40.98 pts — started by Mom D
WR: Ja’Marr Chase, 38.20 pts — started by Sam
RB: Travis Etienne, 33.44 pts — started by Jonathan
TE: George Kittle, 23.97 pts — started by Paul
K: Greg Zuerlein, 18.00 pts — on the wire
DEF: New Orleans, 29.00 pts — started by Mom D
D: Jason Pinnock, 12.50 pts — on the wire

Shout out to Bears WR DJ Moore, who had eight catches for 230 yards and three TDs on Thursday night … and was only the second best receiver on the week. Chase had 15 catches for 192 and three TDs, accounting for 60% of his team’s receiving yards and all of their receiving TDs on the day.

Kittle gets the efficiency award, though. He had three catches on Sunday night for 67 yards, but all of those ended up as TDs. He had fewer than 17 points combined in his first four games, and more than doubled his points on the year on just three plays.

Fourteen QBs topped 20 fantasy points this week, which means if you managed to start one who didn’t — say, I dunno, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, with 9.94 pts — you really missed out.

“Silly names” edition

3rd place: Xavier Gipson, -1.32 pts — on the wire
2nd place: Gunner Olszewski, -1.36 pts — on the wire
1st place: Mac Jones, -1.60 pts — on the wire

It’s hard to pick the best part of the Patriots’ 34-0 loss to the Saints in New England on Sunday. Was it fun because it’s the worst home loss of Bill Belichick’s coaching career? Is it fun because it was the second week in a row that the Patriots lost by 30-plus points? Or was it Mac Jones, who New England fans were crowing about as the steal of the 2021 draft? On Sunday, he completed 12 of 22 passes for 110 yards, no TDs and two interceptions, one returned for six points. He was benched midway through the game for the second straight week.

His passer rating was 30.5 for the Patriots, which was worse than the 39.6 rating you posted on your couch at home (1 pass attempt, zero completions or yards or INTs.) But even worse, if you assume Jones was actually playing for the Saints, then his passer rating was 54.7 (2 for 22, 27 yards, 1 TD and 12 interceptions) — almost twice what it was for New England. It’s always tough to win when there is a double agent on your team.


** Headline on Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff on Saturday: “Early Concerns for Ohio State?”

Displayed next to the headline: The Buckeyes’ logo, accompanied by their 4-0 record and their #4 ranking in the polls.

Things got so concerning for the team later in the day that they moved up 5-0 and #3 in the rankings. They better watch out, there isn’t a lot of room left to move up.

** I know I complain about this every year, but in my ESPN fantasy football league, they’ll give your team’s win probability in the weekly matchups. After Sunday’s games ended, I had 167.22 pts to my opponent’s 81.76. His team was finished, I had WR Davante Adams still to play on Monday night. ESPN said I had a 99% chance of winning.

Let’s just break down what that 1% chance of losing was:

The Raiders come out on Monday night, and on the first play of the game, Adams rushes the ball for -1 yds and fumbles. Then he does it 39 more times over the course of the next four quarters, which would translate into a turnover every 90 seconds.

If that had happened … I’d still have won by two points. Adams would have needed to fumble/lose yards 41 times for my team to subtract enough points for a loss.

So here is my question — Since that has never happened before in the 16,000-plus NFL games in history, is that really a 1% chance? If it had happened on Monday night (which, FYI, it did not) that would have meant it occurred in 0.00625% of NFL contests, which is much closer to zero than 1.

But math has never been ESPN’s strong suit. That’s why they’re been losing viewers for years.

** I’m still waiting for the national condemnation of Braves fans throwing stuff on the field after they didn’t like a call in Saturday’s game. I’m sure we’ll get it soon.

The NFL’s next-gen stats (which are utter nonsense most of the time) keeps track of the fastest plays in the league each year. Currently, the top five are all held by Dolphins players, with WR Tyreek Hill, RB Devone Achane and RB Raheem Mostert all surpassing 21 mph on runs this year.

That’s impressive, but it begs the question: Are NFL players living up to the standards set by their mascots? Unfortunately, the data set released by the NFL is limited, but here’s an overview of which squads have a player who could outpace their team symbols and which would be left in the dust (human mascots have been excluded, because they are all slow):

Could win a race:
Miami — WR Tyreek Hill, 22 mph (A dolphin’s top speed, 16 mph)
Los Angeles — CB Cobie Durant, 21.5 mph (A ram, 20 mph)

Could not win a race:
Baltimore — WR Devin Duvernay, 21.6 mph (A raven, 25 mph)
Denver — WR Marvin Mims, 21.4 mph (A bronco, 30 mph)
Cincinnati — WR Ja’Marr Chase, 21.5 mph (A tiger, 35 mph)
Chicago — WR DJ Moore, 21.4 mph (A bear, 35 mph)
Jacksonville — RB Travis Etienne, 21.6 mph (A jaguar, 50 mph)
Philadelphia — WR Quez Watkins, 21.6 mph (An eagle, 75 mph)
Seattle — RB Kenneth Walker, 22 mph (A seahawk, 145 mph)

Incomplete data, but probably not:
Indianapolis — a colt’s top speed is 30 mph
Carolina — a panther’s top speed is 36 mph
Detroit — a lion’s top speed is 50 mph
Atlanta — a falcon’s top speed is 240 mph

Incomplete data, but probably:
Arizona — a cardinal’s top speed is 20 mph

Funny enough for its own category:
New Jersey — RB Breece Hall, 21.5 mph (A jet, 580 mph)

Tight End has been one of the solid spots for Dallas in recent years, so it was a surprise when the team used a second-round pick on the spot in last spring’s draft. But Michigan's Luke Schoonmaker was too good for the team to pass up. It’s not because of his football skills, of course. They’re just average. It’s because of his personal ethos and what his name clearly spells out:

Cowboys Rookie Tight End Luke Schoonmaker
** Mutable hooey. Crook thinks genocide works.

Unconscionable. But also, unsurprising that a member of the Cowboys supports genocide. 

By the way, this is the second time in the last three seasons that I've found the word "genocide" in the name of a Cowboys TE drafted out of Michigan.  

** I went two for three against Dad on Sunday, putting me up one in our weekly picks contest for the year. But it was a messy affair. After going 42-21 through the first four weeks, I went 7-7 this weekend thanks in large part to big upsets by the Bears, Jaguars and Steelers. This league really makes no sense.

** Vikings WR Justin Jefferson could be out for several games with a hamstring injury. If they need a replacement, New England has WR Jalen Reagor on their practice squad.

** Delaware’s Fightin Blue Hens are up to #8 in the FCS coaches poll. Villanova is not in the top 25, but instead in the “others receiving votes” category. Just saying.

Week 5 standings

1 — The Best (Jonathan), 692.94 pts
2 — Jalen Ain't Failin (Dad), 635.95 pts
3 — DeVonta’s Inferno (Mom D), 620.44 pts
4 — Tight Ends for Everyone! (Jo), 606.20 pts
5 — Standard Deviations (Sam), 593.63 pts
6 — No One Likes Us We Don't Care (Bob), 565.11 pts
7 — Brotherly Shove Squad (Capt. Awesome), 518.02 pts
8 — Let’s Go Phillies! (Paul), 508.10 pts
9 — Murder Hornets (Mike), 503.96 pts
10 — Jabronis (Ant), 493.99 pts
11 — All Rogers No Sauce (Joel), 493.96 pts
12 — Blue Collar Killers (Jeff), 458.46 pts

The podium stand remains unchanged from last week, save for Dad and Mom D picking up some ground on Jonathan. But let’s talk about the other end of the standings.

The Bears took almost one full calendar year between wins, and Paul took almost one full calendar year to crawl out of the league basement. The last time his squad was not in last place was week 9 of last season (Nov. 8, 2022). But he not only climbed out of the cellar, he shot all the way up to the second floor, placing 8th this week. It’s amazing what actually setting your roster will do.

Speaking of setting your roster, Bob’s rejuvenated team posted 162.20 pts this week, outpacing good performances by Mom D and Jo to propel himself back into the mix. Jeff and I set our rosters, but you wouldn’t know it from the sub-75-pts performances each of us got. There’s a dividing line forming in the standings right in the middle, and all the teams below it should start to feel concerned.

Week 6 features another Thursday game, another London game and two more bye weeks. It also has a Sunday night game between the Bills, who play in New York, and the Giants, who do not. So scrub those rosters carefully as you try to make sense of the NFL.