Monday, April 24, 2006

Draft factoids post #12

I'm ending the "15 years of draft stats" a few days early because:

1) Believe it or not, I'm running out of stats.
2) There are a handful of other things I need to get off my chest before the weekend (like the stupid Phillies).
3) I'm gonna need to mow the lawn soon, so I might need to take a day off between now and Saturday.

Tomorrow I'll outline the origins of Draftsgiving Day and the proper way to celebrate it, but before we get there promised that all of this stats breakdown was leading somewhere. So here it is:

What have we learned from our stats crunching?

-- The Eagles are more likely to pick an O or D lineman in the draft than any other positions (22 percent of all draft picks) and especially in the first round (12 of the last 15 first-rounders).
-- The Eagles are more likely to pick someone from a big name school like Florida State or Notre Dame than someplace like Boise State.
-- The Eagles are more likely to pick someone whose last name begins with the letter B, M or W than any other letter.
-- The Eagles are more likely to pick against the experts predictions than with them, often -- but not always -- with disastrous results.


So, with that in mind, here are the most likely candidates to be the newest member of the nest on Saturday:

-- Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida State. Everyone has this guy going earlier than the 14th pick, but he fits every criteria above.
Odds of me being right: 90 percent
-- Winston Justice, OT, USC. Again, most people have him going earlier, and his last name starts with J. But O-lineman have a way of slipping down a few spots, and his first name starts with a W and sounds like a last name.
Odds of me being right: 70 percent
-- Kamerion Wimbley, DE, Florida State. This wouldn't make any sense, unless they trade down and decide they need a sixth defensive end. No sense whatsoever. So ...
Odds of me being right: 80 percent
-- Nick Mangold, C, Ohio State. Remember, they almost dumped Hank Fraley this offseason.
Odds of me being right: 50 percent
-- LenDale White, RB, USC. He'd be a perfect complement to Westbrook, he comes from a big program, everyone is predicting he'll end up being great at the pro level. No shot.
Odds of me being right: negative-30 percent

If it's White I'll be the happiest I've been about the Iggles since Chad Lewis broke his foot catching that touchdown pass to seal the NFC championship game. If it's Justice (or a WR), I'll weep openly like ... well .. like the last birds game I watched.

If it's Bunkley, we'll have a vote to see how I feel.

FYI, here's who some other folks are predicting for the Eagles, as of Monday night:
** Yahoo sports: Santonio Holmes, WR, Ohio State
** Sports Illustrated: Chad Greenway, OLB, Iowa
** About.com: Chad Jackson, WR, Florida
** Football's future: Brodrick Bunkley, DT, Florida St.
** Our Lads: Winston Justice, OT, USC

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I go away for a week and you have a massive dump of posts. I should have heeded the "15 days of Draftsgiving" warning, I guess.

* sings *

One the first day of Draftsgiving, Leo said to me . . .

By the way, my cubemate tells me that Clinton Tudors didn't play in the SEC but something call the Southern Conference. Does his record still hold?

Capt. Awesome said...

Lousy fact checkers. Now that I went back and checked, those were Southern Conference records, just abbreviated wrong on the site I was reading. If I ever figure out how to do them fancy strikethrough thingies, I'll fix it.